Early-Onset Cancer Cases Are Rising in the U.S., But Most Death Rates Remain Stable, Study Finds
New data reveals concerning increase in cancers among young adults, especially women, but survival rates offer some reassurance.

A new U.S. government study is shedding light on an unsettling trend in public health: cancer diagnoses are rising among younger people, particularly in those under the age of 50. While cancer in this age group remains relatively rare, researchers say it is becoming increasingly common—especially for certain types such as breast, colorectal, kidney, and uterine cancers.

Published this week in the journal Cancer Discovery, the study examined more than 2 million cancer cases diagnosed in individuals aged 15 to 49 between 2010 and 2019. It offers the most comprehensive look yet at early-onset cancers in the United States and raises new questions about what may be driving the increases.

A Concerning Trend, Particularly Among Women

Among the 33 types of cancer analysed, 14 showed rising rates in at least one younger age bracket. About 63% of all early-onset cancer cases were found in women. Breast cancer had the most significant increase, followed by colorectal, kidney, and uterine cancers.

“This kind of pattern generally reflects something profound going on,” said Tim Rebbeck of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, who studies cancer risk but was not involved in the study. “We need to fund research that will help us understand the ‘why’ behind these numbers.”

Measuring the Impact: Thousands of Additional Cases

To understand the extent of the problem, researchers compared 2019 cancer rates to what would be expected based on 2010 data. The difference was stark:

• Breast cancer: 4,800 more cases than expected
• Colorectal cancer: 2,000 more cases
• Kidney cancer: 1,800 more cases
• Uterine cancer: 1,200 more cases

While these numbers may seem small in the context of the entire U.S. population, they represent significant increases within a young age group that typically sees far fewer cancer diagnoses.

Death Rates Hold Steady — Mostly

The silver lining? Despite rising incidence, death rates for most early-onset cancers have not followed the same upward trend. In fact, they remain stable or are even declining for many cancers, which may reflect improvements in early detection and treatment.

However, there are exceptions. The study found that death rates are increasing for colorectal, uterine, and testicular cancers among young adults—an alarming detail that underscores the need for vigilance and further investigation.

What’s Causing the Rise?

Researchers have several theories, but no definitive answers. The databases used in the study do not track individual risk factors like diet, lifestyle, or access to healthcare, making it difficult to identify precise causes.

However, some suspected contributors include:

• Rising obesity rates: Several of the cancers showing increased incidence are known to be associated with excess body weight.
• Changes in screening guidelines: Improvements in diagnostic tools and updated guidelines may be detecting more cancers earlier than in the past.
• Reproductive factors: For breast cancer, a shift toward having children later in life may be contributing to the trend, since early pregnancies and breastfeeding are known to reduce risk.

“Several of these cancer types are known to be associated with excess body weight, and so one of the leading hypotheses is increasing rates of obesity,” said Dr. Meredith Shiels, lead author and senior investigator at the National Cancer Institute.

Not All Cancers Are Rising

Importantly, this is not a universal trend. For more than a dozen types of cancer, rates in people under 50 are actually declining. Lung and prostate cancers saw the largest decreases, likely due to:

• Reduced smoking rates: The U.S. has seen a steady decline in cigarette use, which is closely linked to lung cancer.
• Revised screening recommendations: Updated medical guidelines have discouraged routine PSA testing in younger men, leading to fewer prostate cancer diagnoses and possibly preventing over-treatment.

What’s Next?

To better understand these patterns, a major research meeting is planned later this year, bringing together global experts to explore the causes and implications of early-onset cancers. In the meantime, the study’s authors are calling for more funding, broader data collection, and targeted public health campaigns.

The findings serve as both a warning and a call to action. While advances in cancer treatment have led to better outcomes for many patients, the rising number of young people being diagnosed with cancer is a sobering development. Continued vigilance, prevention efforts, and research will be crucial in ensuring that these trends are understood and addressed.

In the words of Dr. Rebbeck, “We’re seeing the signal—we just need to figure out what it means.