Portugal's Political Crisis Deepens as Government Plans Mass Deportation Ahead of May 18 Election

In a dramatic turn of events just weeks before Portugal’s early general election, the country’s caretaker government has announced a controversial plan to expel nearly 18,000 undocumented migrants. This move comes amid growing political instability and the rise of far-right populism, painting a stark contrast to Portugal’s historically welcoming approach to immigration.

The announcement, made on Saturday by Minister of the Presidency António Leitão Amaro, has stirred debate across the country. According to Amaro, authorities will begin issuing notices next week to undocumented migrants, starting with approximately 4,500 individuals who will be asked to leave voluntarily within 20 days. The total number of expulsion notifications is expected to reach around 18,000.

“Portugal needs to review its deportation system, which doesn’t work,” Amaro said in a recent interview. He noted that Portugal is among the European countries executing the fewest deportations of individuals ordered to leave due to legal violations, including security concerns.

While the government frames the plan as an overdue enforcement of existing laws, critics argue that the timing is highly political—conveniently placed just ahead of a high-stakes election on May 18. With a rising tide of populism and nationalist sentiment, particularly from the far-right Chega party, the deportation announcement is seen by many as an appeal to conservative voters who have grown frustrated with the government’s handling of migration and security.

Why Is Portugal Holding Snap Elections?

The deportation policy is unfolding against the backdrop of a political crisis that erupted in March. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, leader of the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), was forced to call early elections after his minority government lost a crucial confidence vote in parliament.

The collapse came less than a year into Montenegro’s term, sparked by allegations that a law firm connected to his family received payments from a company with a lucrative government gambling concession. Though Montenegro denied any wrongdoing, the scandal weakened his position. Hoping to stabilise the situation, he called for a snap election—but instead, opposition parties banded together to bring his government down.

With just 80 seats in the 230-seat parliament, Montenegro’s two-party alliance was vulnerable from the start. The Socialist Party and the far-right Chega party, despite being on opposite ends of the political spectrum, joined forces with other parties to push the government out. Combined, they controlled 128 seats and voted overwhelmingly against the minority government.

A Nation at a Crossroads

The upcoming May 18 election has thrown Portugal into a period of profound political uncertainty. This moment comes at a time when the country is preparing to invest over €22 billion in EU development funds to modernise its economy and infrastructure. Analysts fear that continued instability could threaten these efforts and delay much-needed reforms.

Since the 1974 Carnation Revolution that ended a decades-long dictatorship, Portugal has enjoyed relative political stability. However, the events of recent months mark one of the most turbulent periods in the country’s democratic history. This instability is not just about political rivalry—it reflects deeper concerns about governance, transparency, and national identity.

The rapid rise of Chega, which became the third-largest party in the last election, underscores the shifting mood in the electorate. Chega has gained support by tapping into public frustration over immigration, economic inequality, and what it describes as a political elite disconnected from everyday realities. The party’s anti-immigration stance has played a key role in reshaping national debate—and now appears to be influencing government policy even before election results are in.

What Happens Next?

The government’s mass deportation plan is likely to remain a flashpoint in the days leading up to the election. Supporters argue that it restores order and enforces the rule of law, while opponents warn that it risks fuelling xenophobia and harming vulnerable communities who have long contributed to Portuguese society, particularly in labour-intensive sectors like construction and caregiving.

Human rights groups and migrant advocacy organisations are calling for transparency, legal oversight, and humane treatment of those affected by the new policy. With international attention now focused on Portugal’s political future, the stakes are high—not just for those facing expulsion, but for the soul of Portuguese democracy.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, one thing is clear: the decision they make on May 18 will shape the direction of the country for years to come. Will Portugal double down on hardline policies, or will it choose a different path? The answer will reveal much about how this small European nation plans to navigate an increasingly complex and divided political landscape.